October 22, 2010

Money Bet of the Century | Week #8

Money Betters-

COULD IT HAVE BEEN ANY MORE WRONG LAST WEEK?! Here at the MBOC, we promote full disclosure. If you make a bad pick, you own up to it. The readers appreciate that....hell, the readers deserve that. Nothing is weaker than sitting behind your green curtain telling everyone you are the mighty 'Wizard of Oz'.....AND THEN getting exposed by a tiny dog......that's just straight up lame SHIT....

Anytime we get dealt a blow at the MBOC, we try something a little different. In this case....it's to dig deeper to find the real money for the readers.

So....we went to Field Correspondent Adam Smith out in Sin City LAS VEGAS this week for the pick. Adam is known around the Las Vegas community as a man with his hand on the pulse of college football gambling, and an all-around good dude. His picks have been known to sway major casinos lines.....so...when we really need an MBOC win.....I look to my field correspondent dugout, I come up tapping the right arm and calling in Adam Smith, the MBOC closer.....he runs to the mound ala-John Rocker style, and always chalks up a 'W'.

Adam understood we were on the fence from last weeks lost, and rolled back his sleeves for this weeks pick. The research he put in just might make this the most solid pick of the century.

Wisconsin was a team that successfully drilled home that they could run at will against the Buckeyes last weekend posting up a 31-18 win as a four-point home underdog. John Clay and James White combined for 179 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

The Badgers can’t get fat off of that win for too long as they’re set for another big league showdown. Now they head to Iowa City to face off with the Hawkeyes for the Heartland Trophy.

Most of the betting shops out and about have posted Iowa as a 5 ½-point home favorite in this contest. And VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Tom Freese believes that Kinnick Stadium is all the advantage the Hawkeyes will need.

“Both of these teams have great running games and defenses that can stop opposing attacks. Yet Iowa is an awfully tough team to beat at home.”

Freese is right on in that the Hawkeyes are tough in front of a home crowd. Iowa has gone 14-2 Straight Up at home dating back to the start of the 2008 campaign. Gamblers, however, have been on a see-saw when backing them with an 8-8 Against The Spread (ATS) mark. Those two losses, by the way, both came to Northwestern. If we’re tightening that info up to just Big Ten games, then the Hawkeyes are 5-1 Straight Up (SU) and 2-4 ATS in their last six in this spot.

Regardless of the issue of covering the spread, Iowa still has a damn good team. Ricky Stanzi is the third-most efficient quarterback in the country, completing 68% of his throws and posting a rating of 180.49. Should the Badgers be able to contain Stanzi’s passing attack, that’ll just give Running Back Adam Robinson a chance to shine in a big way. All he’s done is average 103.8 YPG on the ground with eight touchdowns.

When looking at past battles, you’d have to notice that the Hawkeyes have gone 6-4 SU against Wisconi. But for our MBOC purposes, Iowa has been the smart play nearly every time, evidenced by an 8-2 ATS record. Plus, the Badgers are just 2-8 SU and 3-6-1 ATS as road underdogs the last five years against Big Ten foes.

One other amazing fact that is EXCLUSIVE to MBOC readers: The last seven teams to beat an AP No. 1 in the regular season have just a 3-4 record in their next game!!

IOWA gets it done out in Iowa City against the Badgers. Look for Iowa to take this one by 18!!!
And if you want to know if we just pick 'em and don't have skin in the game....Adam would like to share this with you... GET IN THE GAME!!!! (don't forget to vote in the right hand corner and comment below!!!)

1 comment:

  1. Solid reasoning. For Big 10 I like IU to cover the 14 on IL. IL is still sulking from the ass kicking they got from State. They don't have the firepower to come back swinging. Also you won't like it but look for the Huskies to cover the 8 vs Folesless AZ.